The aggregate interaction-based probability on selected segments (not including the ruptured San Andreas fault) is 53-70% versus the noninteraction range of 65-77%. Use of stressing rate parameters calculated with the finite element model yields a 7-12% reduction in 30-year probability caused by the 1906 stress shadow as compared with calculations not incorporating interactions. The best new limited release was Heaven Knows What, which earned an average of 8,431 from two theaters. That film opened in first place with an average of 14,453. However, the stress shadow still affects present-day earthquake probability. There was only one film in the 10,000 club on the per theater chart and it was the overall box office leader, San Andreas. All models considered indicate that the 1906 stress shadow was completely erased by tectonic loading no later than 1980. More distributed stressing and postseismic effects in the finite element model lead to lower calculated tectonic stressing rates and longer stress shadow durations (17-74 years compared with 7-54 years).

In addition, the finite element model incorporates postseismic effects such as deep afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation in the upper mantle. In the finite element model, tectonic stressing is distributed throughout the crust and upper mantle, whereas tectonic stressing calculated with dislocations is focused mostly on faults. Fault stressing rates calculated with the finite element model are evaluated against numbers calculated using deep dislocation slip.

The model reproduces observed geologic slip rates on major strike-slip faults and produces surface velocity vectors comparable to geodetic measurements. This study presents a three-dimensional (3-D) finite element simulation of post-1906 stress recovery. The duration of the stress shadow is a key question in San Francisco Bay area seismic hazard assessment. The M = 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake cast a stress shadow across the San Andreas fault system, inhibiting other large earthquakes for at least 75 years.

San andreas cast